Annecdotally, the spring market is in full swing: we have been very busy this April, with new listings, many in the works and several happy buyers, which you can probably tell by how late this newsletter is.

Looking back at the March 2026 numbers for Stratford, it's a market in transition with signals pointing in different directions.

Transaction volume hit 42 sales, up 40% from February and 13.5% year-over-year. New listings climbed to 84 properties, up from 47 last March, a 78.7% increase. More inventory, more activity.

Prices softened modestly. Average price came in at $605,033, down 2.1% year-over-year. Median price sits at $579,375, up 7.3% from February but reflecting a shift in what sold rather than broad appreciation. Year-to-date, both average and median prices are tracking 1-7% below 2025.

The negotiating dynamic has clearly shifted. Only 11.9% of homes sold above list price, down from 24.3% last March. 88.1% sold below asking, and average sale-to-list ratio came in at 97.1%. Sellers are giving back some ground at the table, and buyers have more room to negotiate than they've had in years.

That said, well-priced homes are still moving. Median days on market dropped to 25 from 36 in February.

One important caveat on March: weather kept buyers home. Showings are up 66% so far in April, so the pent-up demand is real and already showing up. April will likely tell a different story.

Bottom line: more inventory, softer prices, longer negotiations, but genuine buyer activity returning with the weather. Sellers need to price sharply and present well. Buyers have leverage they haven't had in a while, but that window may narrow more if April's pace holds.

My column as to be published in the Stratford Times. (pending their edits)

On March 25, Ontario announced a temporary removal of the 13% HST on newly built homes. This change is effective April 1, 2026, through March 31, 2027. The province will cover the 8% provincial share, while Ottawa agreed to cover the remaining 5% federal portion. For homes up to $1 million, the full HST is rebated, to a maximum of $130,000. That cap holds flat to $1.5 million, then tapers down. Unlike the earlier first-time buyer rebate, this program is open to all buyers. This includes move-up purchasers and investors buying purpose-built rentals.

This is not entirely new. Buyers of new homes have always had access to a partial HST rebate, up to roughly $24,000 on the provincial side and $6,000 on the federal side. That was typically handled by the builder at closing.

What has changed is the scale. On a $650,000 property, the old rebate covered roughly $30,000. The new program covers the full $84,500. The savings are real, but the headline "13% off" slightly overstates it because part of that relief was already in place.

A buyer purchasing a $650,000 property could save roughly $84,500 in HST. That is not a small number. It makes new construction directly competitive with resale for the first time in years, and for first-time buyers or people looking to upsize, it could be the difference between getting into the market and watching from the sidelines.

The rebate lands at a good time.  New home sales and starts have weakened. Locally, the PHBA says the rebate is already generating momentum. "The rebate is helping to rekindle buyer interest for projects and units that were marginally uneconomic or slow to move," says Melissa Schenk, Executive Officer of the Perth-Huron Builders' Association.

But there are a few things buyers should understand before they purchase a new build.

In our market, many local builders advertise their prices with HST included. That means the rebate is already baked into the sticker price.  Not every builder province-wide is handling it the same way, either. Some are passing the full rebate through. Others are retaining part of it to offset rising construction costs. How much of the rebate ends up in the buyer's pocket will vary from project to project.

What matters most is how the rebate shows up in your contract, because it directly affects your financing.

Option one: the builder credits the rebate at closing. The buyer then assigns the rebate back to the builder, and the purchase price on the statement of adjustments is reduced accordingly. Your lender underwrites based on that lower net price, which means less down payment and better qualifying math.

Option two: the builder writes the contract at the full gross price. The buyer closes at the higher number and applies to CRA for the rebate after the fact. Your lender qualifies you at the full purchase price because the rebate is treated as a post-closing tax benefit. That means more cash up front and your borrowing capacity has to cover the gross amount. You get the money back eventually, but you have to carry the full price through closing.

Ask the question early and loop in your mortgage broker to avoid surprises.

Eligibility is tied to your Agreement of Purchase and Sale, not your closing date. Only agreements signed between April 1, 2026 and March 31, 2027 qualify. If you signed before April 1, you are not eligible, regardless of when you close. Industry groups, including the Perth-Huron Builders' Association, advocated for retroactive treatment, but the government chose a forward-looking, one-year window. 

There is also an uncomfortable reality for those already in the pipeline. A client of mine, who was set to close on a pre-construction property and had hoped to make Stratford their home, was relocated for work. They are now concerned about what the HST cut means for their ability to recoup their purchase price when they sell. They paid full HST. A buyer walking into the same development today would not. That kind of overnight shift in the math is difficult to plan around, and there is no retroactive relief for buyers who signed before April 1.

This has had a real effect on values for recently completed construction. When a brand-new home next door suddenly drops $75,000 on an all-in basis, the comparable value of every unit that has already closed in the same development shifts downward.

If you are shopping for a new build this spring, ask the builder or your realtor how the HST is being handled in the contract. Speak to your mortgage broker or bank to find out how it will affect your financing eligibility. And confirm your APS date before you assume you qualify.

The program will move the needle. But some kinks need to be ironed out before it becomes the affordability boon it was announced as

Questions about the market: As always, you can reach me by calling or texting at 519-301-2214.

If you know anyone who is thinking of buying/selling, we would appreciate any referrals.

Or email me at [email protected]