It seems Christmas gets earlier and earlier every year: stores stock Christmas decorations after Halloween decorations, lights come up earlier, and the holiday real estate slowdown was no exception, slowing down in early November; usually, that happens a week or two later. This is reflected in this month’s market roundup.
Sales: November saw 19 transactions, less than half of what we saw in November of last year.
Prices: Saw a modest decline of 2 percent, with some less expensive houses skewing the average more.
Time to sell: Was the big winner (or loser) with median days on market going up to 62, reflecting some houses that had been sitting there for a while selling.
Market snapshot
In this newsletter, I talk about four significant developments in real estate in Stratford in 2025.
Fewer Bidding Wars
Houses were sold.
Listings either sold or sat.
Housing got more affordable.
Fewer Bidding wars.
Gone are the days of inciting a bidding war. During COVID, the theory was that you could list your house for far less than market value, a bunch of buyers would bid on it, FOMO (fear of missing out) would kick in, and you could sell your house for more than you might have otherwise.
Today this strategy ends up like this: Someone lists for house for less than they want to sell it for, someone earnestly offers them what they asked for it, the seller reject the offer, the buyer walks away, the seller then re-lists your house for what you want to sell it for (often with unrealistic expectations), and since you’ve pissed off the available buyer pool the sellers home sits on the market and does not sell.
That’s not to say that bidding wars aren't happening; we still see them on some of our properties, but the bidding war pricing strategy isn’t appropriate for today’s market.
This is the price history of a house in Stratford. What is going on here? Don’t do this.
Here we can see how fewer homes sold over asking in 2025.
Houses Were Sold
Almost just as many houses were sold year over year. 432 people sold their homes in 2025, down from 451 in 2024, a drop of 19.
That period last year saw 559 new listings, whereas this year saw 724. 282 listings expired, terminated, or were suspended, compared to 165 in the previous year. Some of this reflects properties being re-listed at different prices, a strategy some realtors use to get listings at the top of new on realtor.ca. But generally, and anecdotally, more people took their houses off the market this year than last year. But the number of people who sold their houses was about the same.
Inventory is much higher, reflecting levels last seen in 2016. At the time of publication, there are 134 properties on the market, compared to 108 last year. So, buyers have more to choose from.
While almost as many properties were sold this year as last, many more people tried.
Listings either sold or sat.
The median (middle-most) house took 22 days to sell in 2024, vs 23 in 2024. Whereas the average days-on-market-to-sale was 38 days vs 34. Pointing to several properties which dragged up the average.
This year, 22% of all houses listed sold in under 4 weeks or 62% of what ended up selling. Meaning that if your home was well-priced, well-presented, and well-promoted, it sold. Otherwise, either it took far longer to sell, or it got taken off the market. (hint: all our houses sold this year)
Zoom out, and houses are being sold in the same amount of time as they were 10 years ago.
A significant factor increasing days on market is that people now have conditions such as home inspections, financing conditions, and conditions on the sale of their home. Another is falling prices and expectations of home value not reflecting that.
Housing affordability increased
The dream of homeownership has no doubt escaped many Canadians. But with prices down and rates down, 30-year mortgages for first-time homebuyers, I set out to calculate how much a household needs to make to afford a starter home, too see if any of that made a difference.
The graph below shows what annual incomes are in Stratford, vs. what kind of salary you need to ‘afford’ payments on a starter home.
You can see how runaway things got during COVID, where the median couple could not afford even a ‘starter home’. For the first time since 2021, all households earning the median income in Stratford can afford a starter house. (Assuming they can afford the down payment and don’t have substantial other debts) This is good news! For buyers, it means the dream of homeownership is more attainable, and for sellers, it signals the market is balancing out as the pool of buyers who can get a mortgage to afford your house is growing. This points to possible price stability in 2026.
I think affordability should still increase: Personally, as a value, I think it makes sense for the median household to be able to afford the median house. To me, that makes sense. This could be attained through wage growth (preferable), new types of housing (modular, ADUs, multiplexes, townhomes) (preferable), or falling house prices (less preferable). Another thing the chart shows is how much more ‘affordable’ housing used to be vs. today.
How I made the chart:
I defined a starter home as a house that costs 80% of the median house price in Stratford, so with November median house prices at $552k, a starter home would be $442,000. Which, looking at MLS, gets you a lovely house. Not a five-bedroom, two-car detached garage and a swimming pool, but a lovely home that works.
I assumed a first-time home buyer would put 5% down and need to pay for CHMC insurance.
I assumed they would take advantage of the new 30-year mortgages.
The last census in Stratford was in 2020, but we get more frequent data about the province, so I assumed that our local incomes grew at the same rate.
I defined affordability as 1/3 of total pre-tax income, so a household would need to make three times their mortgage payment. Although some banks will lend more, many first-time home buyers have car payments and student loans, so I went with 1/3, as that is also what financial planners recommend.
Most first-time buyers do not meet the ‘median income’ threshold, as they are earlier in their careers.
There’s a saying about assumptions. But overall, prices are becoming more reflective of incomes, a factor that could help balance the housing market in 2026.
Next month, I will make some predictions for 2026.
Till next time,
Maklane
519-301-2214