After a cold winter, literally and figuratively, the Stratford real estate market is finding its footing.

Home sales were up 32 per cent this spring, the busiest in four years, with more than $85 million in homes changing hands, up about 20 per cent from last year. The median sold price held steady at $572,500, led by detached homes with 112 sales at a median of $599,000.

Median looks at what sold. To know what your own house is worth, the better gauge is the MLS benchmark price, which tracks the value of a typical home rather than the mix of what sold. The benchmark is down 6.8 per cent from a year ago, a slide that ran through the second half of 2025 and bottomed during the winter freeze.

But the recovery is well underway, up 3.8 per cent in three months, including 2.6 per cent in May alone. The benchmark now sits where it was six months ago. The dip has thawed, even if values remain below last spring’s.

Buyers have more choice than at any point in over a decade. More than 160 homes are for sale in Stratford, the most since 2015, up from 123 a year ago. Between 2016 and 2021, when prices climbed, the average was just 56. This spring’s buyers absorbed enough of this inventory to lift prices from their winter lull; however, many homes remain unsold.

High inventory has given buyers leverage. Homes selling over asking were half as common as last spring. Sellers received 97.7 per cent of their asking price this May, down from 98.4 per cent last May, and down from the COVID-era high of 128.7 per cent.

More than a quarter of homes needed a price reduction before selling, with cuts averaging about five per cent. Another sign of the times: 62 listings were cancelled this spring, a figure somewhat skewed by re-listings at new prices. Those 62 cancellations compare with 28 last spring and a mere handful per season during the boom years, when homes sold themselves.

The result is a market operating at two speeds. Well-priced homes are selling quickly, with the median sale taking 27 days this May, while ones that missed the market sit much longer, dragging the average past 43 days. That can be frustrating for sellers, especially those who watched neighbours sell in a weekend a few years ago.

But part of the longer timeline is a healthier process: offers conditional on home inspections and financing are standard again after years of buyers waiving everything to compete, adding days to a sale while giving buyers protection.

As I wrote in an earlier column, this adjustment is, in part, the market pulling prices back toward what Stratford paycheques can actually carry.

Putting things into context: This spring was much stronger than this winter. January’s median price fell to $525,000, and homes took more than 80 days to sell, with benchmark values at their lowest since early 2021. By March, the median had rebounded to $575,000, and by May to $600,000, while the benchmark recaptured roughly half its winter dip.

Zooming out further, Stratford homes have repriced from the 2022 peak, down about 12 per cent on sale medians and closer to 24 per cent on the quality-adjusted benchmark. That is a three-year adjustment back to 2021 values. While today’s 26-day median time on market is sluggish compared to the 2016-2022 real estate bull-run, in the 2000s, 50 to 80 days was normal.

Whether the spring bump holds is not cut and dried. Local unemployment is the lowest in the province, but the larger picture is murky: trade tensions with the United States weigh on Ontario’s economy, and overseas conflict has pushed up oil prices and, with them, fixed mortgage rates. The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25 per cent for a fifth straight meeting on June 10, and Governor Tiff Macklem says the next move could be a hike or a cut. The Canadian Real Estate Association forecasts essentially zero price growth in Ontario this year; TD forecasts a four per cent decline.

That Stratford buyers and sellers kept trucking through it all suggests durable local demand. The wildcard is rates: if they ease in the second half, this spring suggests buyers are ready.

Sellers: Demand is real, price to today’s market, not 2022’s, and make sure your house presents as the best version of itself.

Buyers: Real selection for the first time in a decade, no bidding war on most homes, conditions back on the table, and values just proved they bounce off dips. Waiting for a crash means waiting for something the data doesn’t quite show.

Move-up buyers: The gap between what you sell for and what you buy for hasn’t been this favourable in years. If you bought in 2021-2023, though, equity recovery may take several years.

Downsizers: Bungalow values have corrected more than two-storey homes over the past three years, though bungalows still trade at a premium per square foot.

Condo owners and buyers: The one segment still genuinely falling. Sellers need sharp pricing; buyers have real leverage.

To sum up: a third more sales than last spring, half as many bidding wars, values bouncing off the winter low, and the most inventory since 2015.

As always you can email me at [email protected]

Or call/text me at 519-301-2214

Market data from the MLS® System and MLS® Home Price Index (OnePoint Association of REALTORS®) and CREA national statistics; analysis by the author. Maklane deWever is a REALTOR® with Home & Company Real Estate Corp., Brokerage, in Stratford.

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